...
This does not jibe with the weather forecasts from yesterday,
Noticeably warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity over the next couple of days combined with northeast winds should increase fire activity along ridges and aligned canyons.but today's forecasts look to be making an effort to correlate.
On Monday the atmosphere will become more unstable with a mid-level Haines Index value of 5 expected over the fire area. This should activate undetected fire that has been dormant since the rain and marine layer influence.
After Tuesday, lower dry bulb and higher relative humidity should decrease fire activity for an extended period.
So who the heck knows? Maybe the conflagration will not get a chance to recharge itself enough before the weather makes it impossible. Just no way to tell anymore.
They say it will hit 87º here today, and cooling slowly over the week, but others say 77º... and cooling quickly over the week. You will probably never guess which guess I prefer comes true....
I'm off to the law library or into the arms of a compassionate bystander.
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4:30pm
Beyond comprehending, they have not changed the perimeter map in a week. They flew for the latest perimeter at 1pm on 9/4/17 and all ArcGIS can do is add and subtract hotspots as the satellites catch them. A passel of fresh ones at the head of the Smith River drainage this afternoon and no idea whether they're inside or outside the current on-the-ground perimeter.
No new hotspots showing [yet] for the head of the Winchuck Drainage, which is closer to me, and I'm thinking now that there really isn't a big chance this puppy will burn me down, but this does not mean it will not cause a fuck ton more devastation before it's done, and it does not even mean I'm safe from it either. It really just means that I still have a shred of faith left in the ArcGIS hotspot updating. They don't do the perimeter maps. They show hotspots.
A hotspot can be inside or outside the perimeter. It can be stuff the main front of the fire has passed that's still got enough fuel to flame back up again later, or embers shooting from the perimeter as far as half a mile or even more and starting new fire for the perimeter to catch up with.
Since the fire took to smoldering and creeping and backing with the rain and elevated humidity, we STILL can't know WHERE it was doing that from, because the perimeter map was already too old when the rain came. It's clear and 84º here today... probably hotter at the fire, but smoke not heavy enough to prevent any perimeter mapping and they goddam do it with electronic gizmos now so there's no excuse. None... except if you count covering up for egregious bungling making the perimeter SO much bigger they just flat out don't want the public to know the new levels of environmental shit they've caused.
pipe up any time....
