[Bumped up from noon today.]
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Maybe new maps will burst upon the scene soon, but it's now been nearly 48 hours since they were sent up to get new perimeter data... which will already be old news, and up to the minute information is most likely going to stay out of our grasp until the news stops being so bleak.
I'm mostly only talking about the parts of the fire that impact on my neighborhood, and they're underlined here and shown at the image link... sans fire perimeter.
Active, torching, spotting, flanking. Continued active fire behavior on perimeter today. As a result of yesterday, large SW push in Div G, including Mt Emily, fire spread approximately 3.7 miles to the SW, torching/spotting with N, NE wind. Div Z had spots across 1107 near Red Mountain TH and became established in upper Winchuck drainage. The NW corner of the fire spread steadily to the N and W backing and flanking with torching/spotting to the SW. Spotting from M/O established 2 large spot fires outside of Div K. Fire spotted across the Illinois River and became established on the north side near the Green Wall. East side of the fire in Branch IV was active with intense surface fire backing/flanking into NE wind, approximately .6 miles from Babyfoot Lake.The part about the "upper Winchuck drainage" is particularly galling. THAT is where their, perhaps imaginary, useless firebreak measures were in place on the last map posted where the maps go online.
The Mt. Emily Ranch Bed & Breakfast is just west of the fire spread, I think, may still be standing, but they've been evacuated and will be relying heavily on the firemen to save their structures.
Most conservative estimate is the fire is now seven miles away from me, but if we go off the words on the update and measure from the downplayed map from yesterday, we're talking three and a half to four miles from me.
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Well, now, somebody finally decided we might have a problem here.
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Went to the rez store a little while ago and the precipitation was about seven or even eight micro-droplets per minute and this seems to have made an impression on the fire.
I must remind you that the perimeter is larger than shown and this doesn't mean the fire is going out. It's just responding to the relative humidity and hunkering down. There's also been no update on InciWeb regarding acreage or activities since this morning. Still, nicer than all those red blots of blazing hot spots, no?
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Humidity and temperature rising since around 10pm. Opened all the windows for some airflow. I can't hear the trees over the water sounds, so we're just sliding the end of a tropical storm onto the fire, I guess. There will be lightning. The tropical storm bits will slow the fire on my end, but end up stoking it to the east when it hits an unfriendly air mass, I'm pretty sure. Day after tomorrow it will be hotter again here and winds outta the northeast, so I'm darn glad they finally updated today's incident page a tiny bit.
Moderate, backing, single tree torching, creeping. Moderated fire behavior due to higher RH and marine layer over fire area.Not enough, but a bit.
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Branch VI: Cal Fire resources have begun creating contingency lines to the south on private land in California.
Utilize Aircraft to check fire spread when possible.
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Perimeter and acreage have been determined by IR flights. Due to a UTF, perimeter and acreage did not change [on official maps] from 9/5. It is estimated the perimeter grew by about 3500 hundred acres using VIRS and Modis.
Acres burned by agency as of 9/5/2017
-BLM - 6,515
-Private - 15,084
-USFS - 155,171
[Uhm... so the real total acreage burned to date is 180,270, No? Yes.]
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Moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Lidia will remain over the area through Friday. This will result in increasing chances of showers Thursday and Thursday night with potential for some heavy rain across the area. Along with the rain chances relative humidity will remain above 50 percent through Friday with mostly cloudy skies. The pattern will begin changing late Friday as an upper level ridge and drier air start building into the region with temperatures rising and relative humidity falling through the weekend.
Yeah, let's make the incident report both more confusing and more accusing, just to make sure the information's there, but not blatant. 180,270 acres... that's just about 175,000 acres in 26 days... the 26 days since it had been burning for a whole month — initial strike was on 7/12/17 — unattended, but mapped for the honchos, of course, gotta let some o' dem fuels burn off, ya know, good for the forest....
pipe up any time....
