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Some fed speak:
Significant Eventsthat stands for: We are relying on the weather to put out this fire. We have halted the fire at a dirt road in the sector nines is most worried about, done some back firing there and are confident it will only smolder and creep unless the weather dries up enough for it to shoot embers over our lines or blaze up and ignite the canopy on a sunny afternoon.
Minimal Smoldering Backing Creeping
Narrative: <— [the narrative, like the official line, what yer spozed to say when faced with uptight citizens.]
Backing, creeping and smoldering fire in the upper Pistol River, upper Winchuck River, and the Illinois River south of Deadman Bar.
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Planned Actions
WEST ZONE:
Branch I: Crews will continue mop up and secure lines. Resources will continue to backhaul suppression supplies and continue suppression damage repair tasks.
Branch II: Collect perimeter data for suppression damage repair, patrol for spot fires and continue to mop up existing control lines. The Oregon National Guard will continue to support the backhaul of equipment and other suppression related materials. Suppression repair group will continue to coordinate with resource advisors in support of suppression repair operations.
Branch III: Continue to identify and collect data for suppression repair. Remove down and hazard trees and debris, allowing for safe travel along the 3318 road. Continue to monitor and patrol the black edge of the fire and suppress spot fires. Continue to support the backhaul of equipment and other suppression related materials.
Branch V: Unstaffed [Winchuck... where it's smoldering and creeping.]
Branch VI: Unstaffed [California Crews finished firebreaks.]
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Projected Incident Activity
12 hours: Precipitation and decreasing temperatures will limit fire activity. Smoldering and creeping.
24 hours: Continuing precipitation and cooler temperatures will decrease fire activity. Smoldering and creeping.
48 hours: Rain showers with cool temperatures will continue to impact the fire area. Smoldering and creeping.
72 hours: Continued clouds with occasional showers. Smoldering and creeping.
Anticipated after 72 hours: Warming and drying weather will start to move over the fire area. Smoldering and creeping fire behavior will continue... [... until it's dry enough to start back to blazing and shooting out crown runs again, that is... if it gets dry enough to resume that behavior.]
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Weather Concerns
Scattered showers moved across the fire area today. Precipitation amounts were spotty and generally less than a tenth of an inch. Cool temperatures and high humidities prevailed as well. Excellent humidity recoveries will occur once again tonight with the areal coverage of showers increasing over the area. Occasional showers are expected on Tuesday followed by widespread rain Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Rain could be heavy at times. Cool temperatures and high humidities will continue through the period. Gusty southwest winds will develop over the fire are Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some lingering showers will persist on Thursday with temperatures not as cool as the past few days and humidities not as high either. Drier weather returns Friday and continues into the weekend.
Also, fires like this can and often do overwinter by keeping coals going in trunks and roots until it's dry enough for them to start burning again.
I'm going to try to treat this as though it's a done deal now, another Forest Service caused conflagration. Lightning may have started it, but he Forest Service caused it.
pipe up any time....
