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You can see on today's public information map that the fire is active on the northwest [Pistol River area] and southwest quadrants.
12 hours: Poor to moderate relative humidity recovery from ridges to valleys. Minimal fire behavior with creeping and smoldering.Especially in the southwest, which is the part that threatens my house, but it's jumped the firebreaks in the Pistol River area and there are lots of homes in that area. So they will be concentrating work there, and either leaving the Winchuck drainage to burn or putting far fewer resources against it right now... because it still has some more acres to burn before it gets to homes.
24 hours: Decreasing temperatures with increasing humidity and partly cloudy conditions will begin to decease fire activity.
48 hours: Mostly rainy weather will continue to decrease fire behavior.
72 hours: Overnight rain, dramatic increases in relative humidity and cooling will further diminish fire activity.
Anticipated after 72 hours: Continued cloudy and cool weather will keep fire any potential for additional perimeter spread minimized.
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THEY'RE RELYING ON THE WEATHER...
and even if this forecast turns out to be perfectly done, and the rain actually comes, it will be back to the battle between fire making steam and actually getting wet. It will slow it... until the winds from the NE and ENE dry everything and then it will be blazing and flaring and running again in the Winchuck drainage.
You can see the horrific scar from the Biscuit fire... that would not be like that if it had not been over logged for far too long, and you can see where there has been good recovery from it because those parts had not been logged in long enough to leave something from which trees might regrow and new ones establish themselves. That will be the Winchuck drainage, and I've already shown you how it's just now beginning to reassert its conifer over the weed trees.
That drainage, and, thankfully, a pretty steep hill, is what stands between me and the Chetco Bar fire. I don't want to lose it... or me... and, well, I've seen enough massive burn scars and clearcuts and ruined streams in my life already. We can just fucking well stop this idiocy now.
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TODAY'S WEATHER....
pipe up any time....
