exactly as i said

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It seems to be aimed right for the mouth of the Smith, which is where the tribe set up an evacuation camp for people from Brookings.
Incident is impacting fire protection districts located in Pistol River, Brookings, Harbor, Cape Ferrelo, and Winchuck.


Red Flag Warning are in effect for the Chetco Bar Fire area through Friday evening for strong, gusty, northeast winds and low RH through Friday morning, followed by very hot, dry and unstable conditions Friday afternoon and evening. Gusty offshore Foehn winds (locally known as the Chetco Effect) will likely peak this evening, continuing into tonight and Friday as while RH falls to very low levels. Winds will ease later Friday as thermal low pressure drifts onshore. However this will present its own problem; Friday and Saturday are expected to be extremely hot, dry and unstable with mid-level Haines 6 conditions. Hot and dry weather will continue Sunday and Monday, though shallow onshore flow will gradually moderate RHs.
Won't get there unless we are supremely unlucky, but if it does, the rez is gonna be a big wreck.

Again, I know CalFire won't let it happen, but I'm still mad at the feds for letting this even be a concern. They let this fire burn completely out of control for nearly two months before someone called them and said, "Hey! What the fuck? You're going to burn down Brookings." And they were! Now they're going to burn down other towns, if we can't stop them.

I am also grateful there is fog this morning! It soaks up the smoke, and it represents humidity to slow the fire and to keep fuels moist... well, it slows the fire because it keeps the fuels moist and just generally because flames are averse to moisture, but does tend to make fires smoke more. Anyway, it wasn't forecast.

It may be that because everyone inland is dying of insane heat, well over 100º, that will keep the fog sucking up to the coast. I know this can also cause more lightning storms, but it might give the bozos in Oregon time to get the southwest edge of the fire stopped... not just diverted, but STOPPED... maybe... if the fog keeps up.

If it burns off by noon, that won't be great. If it burns off by 3pm, that's a little. If it doesn't burn off, that will be stupendously fabulously intensely magically better than good.

Weather and Fire Behavior: Gusty, offshore winds will continue this morning. The forecast is for critical fire weather and the potential for extreme fire behavior due to low relative humidity and high temperatures with unstable atmospheric conditions. Significant perimeter growth and smoke column development are possible. Winds have the potential to carry embers seven tenths of a mile or more.

The National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather Friday afternoon. There is an Excessive Heat Warning through Labor Day for temperatures significantly above normal.

Yesterday: Active fire growth continued on the north, south and east perimeter. The fire continued eastward into areas previously during the 2002 Biscuit Fire. A smoke column developed on the southeast corner of the fire, rising up to 10,000 feet.

Aircraft dropped retardant and water along the southwest and western portions of the fire. Firefighters continued constructing direct and indirect line along the northwest and south flanks of the fire. Oregon State Fire Marshal task forces finished preparing structures in the Winchuck and Pistol River areas.
Significant perimeter growth... pfeh. Winchuck area is the south flank and Pistol is the north flank, the flanks the feds appear to have plum forgotten could be matters of life and death.


I am not finding any maps up to the minute. I just see more modis hot spots on the one that's already a few days old, but the active fire perimeter is unchanged on the maps, despite their admission that it has grown. I hate this part of trying to track emergencies online.

This map, if you enlarge and scroll around the fire, shows how easily the fire jumps dozer breaks. It's harder when there's men there to impede it, but when it's too hot and heavy, they have to split and ol' Chetco Bar fire goes along its merry way. I don't know if those overrun firebreaks were manned or not.


Oh, heh. Inciweb is down... but I think other sites are getting updated maps.

Miraculously, the fog has held. It's 3:25pm and it's still here, albeit not really cooling us down much. Some. It's 111º in Red Bluff right now, so that probably does account for the fog... the saintly fog.


I might be hallucinating the fog. It could be smoke so thick it just looks like high fog. Not too proud to admit it. Or there was fog in the morning and it did burn off, but the smoke stayed and made it look like the the fog was still here. It was not very humid here today or I'd've been sweating worse. So I might need that eye transplant worse than I thought.

One thing I would like you to note is the column of smoke from the big flareup at the southeastern extent of the fire. It slides all the way down the edge of it to the southwestern corner and straight for my house... then sort of hooks it down from here like it was going to pick up some groceries for me in Crescent City. Or that might've been a fog bank it ran into and I'm not yet all the way off my rocker.

pipe up any time....